What connects a fishing community in Thailand, Indigenous Peoples in the Amazon, women fish processors in Senegal and Sámi youth in northern Finland? They live thousands of kilometres apart, in very different landscapes and cultures. The pressures on their territories are different too: industrial agriculture and infrastructure, oil development, industrial fishing, pollution and climate change.

Yet, if you look across these places, a shared story begins to emerge. While lands and waters that have sustained communities for generations are being polluted by corporations in the name of profit – often with little regard for the people whose lives are rooted in them -, communities in those same territories are standing their ground. They are defending their rights, resisting destructive projects and drawing on generations of knowledge and their own ways of governing and caring for the places they call home – and that we all depend on.

The threats take many forms, and so does the resistance. But at the heart of these stories is a common thread: the determination to keep nature, culture and ways of life thriving together, as they have for generations.

To celebrate this resistance, we have brought together images of Indigenous Peoples and local communities from around the world. Taken through the years and across continents, they capture stories and moments that continue to resonate today, and the people behind them. They highlight something too often missing from global conversations about biodiversity: protecting lands and waters cannot be separated from the rights, knowledge and ways of life of the people whose lives are rooted in them.

From October 19th to 30th, governments will gather in Yerevan, Armenia, for CBD COP17, the UN Biodiversity Conference.  This will mark the first global review of how countries are implementing the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, the landmark agreement adopted in 2022 to halt and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030. It will be a critical assessment of whether commitments made on paper are translating into meaningful action on the ground.

For Indigenous Peoples and local communities, what happens next matters. COP17 is an opportunity for governments to advance the recognition of Indigenous and Traditional Territories as a key part of achieving the global 30×30 conservation target, ensure that conservation respects rights and community choices, and make biodiversity finance directly accessible to communities so they can strengthen solutions on their own terms.

Jaqueline Sordi is Comms Specialist for Greenpeace International

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Amsterdam – Concerted and extensive action to transition away from fossil fuels and end forest destruction must become the driving force of government policy in response to the United Nations Environmental Programme’s (UNEP) warning that the global temperature rise will exceed 1.5°C, likely within the next few years.

The new UNEP report represents the first United Nations (UN) report describing a 1.5°C “overshoot, peak and decline” pathway and comes amid a year of worsening heatwaves, wildfires and a strengthening ‘super’ El Niño that have already heightened alarm about the pace of climate change. Confirmation of a looming 1.5°C overshoot is the latest reminder of the need for a robust multilateral response to match the mounting scale of the climate threat.[1]   

At this year’s UN General Assembly and the UN climate talks COP31, world leaders must raise the bar on climate action. Greenpeace is also urging the Santa Marta ‘coalition of doers’ to spearhead ambitious national action at home and, in a turbulent geopolitical space, drive concrete progress towards a just transition away from fossil fuels.[2][3]

Jasper Inventor, Deputy Programme Director at Greenpeace International, said: “This is news none of us wanted to hear, but overshoot is not the reason to give up and surrender 1.5°C. It’s a  heartbreaking moment, and we need to reflect on that, but every fraction of a degree still matters and the UNEP report must now serve as a defining call to action.

“The 1.5°C goal is not only a legal, political and moral threshold – it’s our lifeline and what we do today and tomorrow will determine our fate. Governments must accelerate a fast, fair and funded just transition into renewable energy, ensure we end and reverse forest destruction by 2030 and hold fossil fuel polluters and forest destroyers to account. To help finance climate action, we must also make polluters pay for climate damages.”

The UNEP said although an overshoot of 1.5°C will happen, the extent and duration of it can still be limited through an “overshoot, peak and decline” pathway. However, it reaffirmed that risks and impacts will intensify with every fraction of a degree and time spent above the 1.5°C threshold. Its best-case scenario has a peak temperature rise of 1.8°C if we collectively meet and exceed existing climate commitments. 1.8°C will already carry significant risks, however, including the potential for irreversible tipping points to global systems to be reached. 

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C is a non-negotiable survival line for humanity. It is enshrined in law by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in an Advisory Opinion – and backed by a UN

General Assembly resolution. The ICJ confirmed 1.5°C was the legal obligation for all states and found that high carbon-emitting countries carry a historical responsibility to act fastest and hardest to protect the most vulnerable communities. 

Some of the communities already experiencing the worst of climate impacts live in the Pacific region. The release of the UNEP report coincided with the Pacific Island Forum in Palau, where Pacific island states are meeting to build regional momentum toward COP31 and a Fossil Fuel Free Pacific.[4]

Moemoana Schwenke, Pacific Climate Campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific said from Palau: “For the Pacific, 1.5°C is not an ambition, it is a survival line. It is a matter of justice, sovereignty and our right to determine our own futures in our Pacific way. We inherit our lands, oceans and cultures as an entrusted responsibility, not a commodity to be exhausted. 

“The International Court of Justice has already been clear that 1.5°C is a legally binding obligation, not just a choice. Pacific communities, for decades, have been clear that our ways of life, homes and livelihoods are under threat from climate disasters and impacts. An overshoot is not compatible with Pacific wellbeing.

“The court and governments must translate responsibility into action: a rapid, just and legally grounded transition away from fossil fuels with no further expansion of coal, oil and gas.”

Dr Jerry Jose, Senior Scientist at the Greenpeace International Science Unit said: “Among the many stark warnings, the UNEP report presents the intergenerational burden climate change will impose on future communities in an overshoot scenario. The risks of permanent change escalate as our climate warms. In addition, the multiple decades needed for a decline in the global temperature back to 1.5°C would exacerbate already uneven impacts, many of which having the potential to continue well beyond stabilisation.

“Deep and sustained mitigation in the near-term is essential to limit the peak and duration of the overshoot we are leaving our future generations. Even a decline of temperature is ‘not a given’ and depends on decisions and actions taken today. This raises profound questions about intergenerational responsibility and must compel us to act now.”

ENDS

Notes:

[1] UNEP report: Limiting Overshoot 

[2] Media statement: Santa Marta conference to end fossil fuels a landmark moment for climate and energy stability

[3] Policy Briefing: A Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels

[4] Media statement: Pacific Islands Forum leaders, Albanese must not lose focus on Pacific priorities of climate and ocean

Contacts:

Aaron Gray-Block, Greenpeace International, Climate Politics Communications Manager, aaron.gray-block@greenpeace.org

Greenpeace International Press Desk, +31 (0)20 718 2470 (available 24 hours), pressdesk.int@greenpeace.org

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has warned us that the global temperature will rise above 1.5°C, likely within the next few years, to levels that will worsen extreme weather impacts and intensify the risks of climate change. This is why Greenpeace is demanding that governments urgently respond by rapidly transitioning away from fossil fuels and ending forest destruction to minimise the threat.

Despite this temporary overshoot, the global agreed commitment remains limiting warming to 1.5°C, as outlined in the Paris Agreement and upheld by the International Court of Justice and adopted at the UN General Assembly. 

The UNEP’s new report ‘Limiting Overshoot’ outlines a pathway called “overshoot, peak and decline” to minimise and adapt to the impacts of an exceedance and an eventual return to 1.5°C. But even in the best case scenario where governments fully implement and exceed their current and future climate action plans, the UNEP states that our temperature rise will still hit 1.8°C before declining. 

The UNEP stresses there are “no good outcomes if we remain above 1.5°C” and that we must focus on making the overshoot as small and short as possible. This will be determined by decisions taken today – rapid climate action across all sectors is “both necessary and feasible” to hold warming as close as possible to 1.5°C by 2100. 

What does an overshoot of 1.5°C actually mean?

In 2015, at the UN climate conference COP21 in Paris, close to 200 governments committed to efforts aimed at limiting global warming to 1.5°C and well within 2°C by 2100.

While the average global temperatures rose above that target for the first time in 2024 – hitting 1.6°C above the pre-industrial period – this did not signify a long-term breach of the 1.5°C limit. One year is only a single indicator and what matters is the long-term trend – measured as a temperature increase over decades, not individual months or years. 

The term ‘overshoot’, however, is increasingly being used to describe future temperature trends that temporarily exceed 1.5°C and are followed by future declines. Overshoot, peak and decline pathways are part of the new set of global emissions scenarios which will provide the basis for upcoming climate research reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN’s climate science panel.

What does the UNEP report say about avoiding a 1.5°C overshoot?  

The UNEP said global action to cut greenhouse gas emissions had been too slow to stop temperatures rising more than 1.5°C in “the next few years”. 

In terms of the planetary carbon budget, only about 130 Gt of additional CO₂ can be emitted from 2026 onwards to have even a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. To stay within this budget, CO₂ emissions would need to decline steadily from 2025 levels to zero in just over six years, leaving us with a huge emissions gap between current levels and what is needed. 

So, after decades of “insufficient action”, the UNEP outlined three challenges to limiting temperature overshoot:

• Reducing emissions and addressing impacts
• Limiting peak warming and managing climate risks
• Sustaining the decline in temperatures and scaling up adaptation efforts

The UNEP called for a global response that includes the three interconnected phases. An immediate response for slowing temperature rise, involving deep emission cuts and urgent measures to protect vulnerable populations. Secondly, a coping and containment phase to boost climate resilience needs, followed by a third phase that focuses on building long-term resilience with net-negative emissions.

What’s required, it added, was multilateral cooperation, climate finance and effective implementation of government policies to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels and to expand renewable energies, cut methane pollution and protect land, forest and oceans.

What are the consequences of a 1.5°C overshoot?

The UNEP said that by delaying action we might lose the chance to return to 1.5°C and “face an unprecedented, damaged world”. The impacts of a 1.5°C overshoot would be wide and varied, affecting ecosystems, human systems and economic systems.

The repeated heatwaves and wildfires among the so-called natural disasters in 2026 are also the types of impacts we’ve been warned about. A potential world of 1.5°C overshoot will see these types of disasters become more likely and potentially more severe in years to come.

Cryosphere impacts such as Arctic sea ice and habitat loss, glacial loss, permafrost thaw and degradation will be on the frontline and these impacts will affect ecosystems and downstream communities dependent on seasonal melt water.

Loss of biodiversity in marine and terrestrial fronts from land use change and ocean acidification will trickle down to human health, food and water security as cities and infrastructure come under “increasing strain” from extreme events and other impacts.

The UNEP also warned that some Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and low-lying coastal cities could become partially or completely submerged due to sea level rise. This could put continuity of their statehood itself in question.

All of these, among others, will mean that societies have to adjust constantly, raising issues of justice, power, and political legitimacy.

How close are we to the 1.5°C overshoot threshold?

While the WMO has warned it’s very likely the global temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C for at least one year between 2026 and 2030, it has also said that it’s likely the 2026-2030 five-year average will exceed 1.5°C.

Now, the UNEP said human-induced global warming is nearing 1.4°C, and global temperatures have been increasing at about 0.25°C per decade (with some recent studies showing an even faster rate). 

As per the IPCC, every five years of high emissions adds 0.1°C to peak warming. Based on these trends, global warming could reach 1.5°C within a few years – around the end of this decade.

Will 1.5°C overshoot trigger irreversible tipping points?

There is a chance some impacts from a 1.5°C overshoot will be irreversible even if global temperatures eventually decline. The risk of tipping points increases the higher global temperatures reach, and the longer we stay above 1.5°C so it’s important to restrict this rise as much as possible.

Irreversible changes include the potential destabilisation (i.e. melting and collapse) of the major West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and degradation of the Amazon rainforest, and disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) – the system of ocean currents which help regulate the climate by moving warm surface water north and cold deep water south.

These are changes that “would reshape the world forever” and may emerge abruptly or accumulate over time, the UNEP warned. A fall in global temperature may also co-exist, for example, with a continuation of impacts – continued sea level rise, ocean warming, cryosphere losses and regional changes in rainfall, drought and weather extremes.

Placing equity and justice at the core of the global response to climate change

The UNEP report strongly recognised that equity and justice must be a central element of strategies to protect vulnerable people from climate change and to create a just transition for communities and workforces as part of efforts aimed at securing a liveable future for all.

Ultimately, developed countries have an historical responsibility and capability to act the “hardest and fastest”. They must ensure that a just transition away from fossil fuels allows all communities to access the benefits of renewable energy and that no one is disadvantaged through the transition. 

As Greenpeace International explains in its policy briefing, a just transition is more than simply swapping coal, oil and gas for renewables. It is an opportunity to transform energy, transport, industrial and other systems so they are more secure and affordable, reduce inequality, protect ecosystems and shift power from elites and multi-billion-dollar corporations to people.

What climate mitigation actions need to take place, and how important is adaptation?

While the UNEP report emphasised an urgent need for climate action to limit the overshoot, it recognised that impacts are unavoidable and that a combination of mitigation (climate action) and adaptation will be needed. 

Mitigation and adaptation are “fundamentally interconnected”, the UNEP said, adding that mitigation will determine the scale and duration of future climate risks, and adaptation remains essential because impacts are already happening and additional warming is unavoidable.

Mitigation determines the journey and the destination, and adaptation determines who gets there. There should be commitments on finance, durable solidarity and inclusive governance built well before peak warming, rather than waiting to be improvised under crisis conditions.

If we overshoot 1.5°C, how can we get back to that limit? 

Net-zero – where CO₂ emissions are balanced by CO₂ removals –  is required to halt warming, along with deep reductions in methane and other short lived climate pollutants. It is essential that early climate action is taken to limit the peak temperature rise because the higher the temperature rises, the greater amount of CO₂ needs to be removed from the atmosphere.

Deep cuts in methane are also vital because it contributes about 0.5°C of current global warming. While the UNEP said there are challenges in tackling methane emissions, it’s clear we cannot cool the planet while industrial livestock production continues to expand unchecked, driving superheating methane emissions, deforestation, drinking water pollution, and extinction.

According to the UNEP’s analysis, some level of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will also be necessary. However, most CDR strategies remain highly uncertain when it comes to effectiveness, scalability, permanence, durability, potential adverse impacts and social acceptability. 

What needs to be done now to avoid or limit a 1.5°C overshoot?

On the road to the UN General Assembly in September and the UN climate conference COP31 in November, governments must acknowledge this report and signal their intent to accelerate a just transition. The 1.5°C limit is a legal, political and moral obligation, and what matters now is what we do today and tomorrow because every fraction of a degree matters. 

Essential actions to take now are:

• Immediate and profound emissions cuts as part of a Just Transition away from fossil fuels are urgently needed, 
• Protecting the oceans and forest 
• Protecting  the most vulnerable and those least responsible for climate change 

A stable climate in the future requires change today!

Jasper Inventor is Deputy Programme Director at Greenpeace International.
Dr. Jerry Jose is Senior Scientist at the Greenpeace International Science Unit (University of Exeter, UK).

Amid crashing waves, birdsong, and the breeze, dozens of Indigenous Peoples gathered, sitting on senats – traditional mats distinct to the Raja Ampat archipelago in West Papua, Indonesia. They attended a three-day gathering starting on 20 August 2026 called Heyul Pelei Koranu Fyak (The Grand Assembly of Raja Ampat Indigenous Communities), which brought together Indigenous Peoples and local communities from the archipelago and other parts of Papua and Indonesia, and also welcomed Indigenous representatives from the Amazon, Africa, and Malaysia.

The gathering, supported by Greenpeace Indonesia and the local NGO Institut USBA, aimed to strengthen solidarity in protecting Indigenous lands, waters, and biodiversity.

Indigenous Peoples around the world are facing escalating pressure from extractive industries. Despite the public outcry through the #SaveRajaAmpat campaign last year, the area known as ‘the last paradise on Earth ’ is still under threat from nickel mining. Raja Ampat is located in the Coral Triangle and is home to 75% of the world’s coral. Meanwhile in the Amazon, thousands of hectares of rainforest in the Indigenous territories are being destroyed by illegal gold mining. 

Indigenous Peoples are resisting the destruction and maintain a deep, intergenerational connection to their lands, forests, oceans, and ecosystems. Their knowledge and relationship with nature demonstrate that ecosystems are most resilient when local peoples who depend on them have the power to defend and manage their territories. In Raja Ampat, for instance, Indigenous communities practice sasi, a temporary prohibition on harvesting specific natural resources within a designated area of land or sea to allow ecosystems to naturally rest, recover, and regenerate.

“There is the tradition of creating an ecological calendar; there is a taboo that requires us to speak in local language upon visiting certain places; also there is a myth for not catching big fish. They are all our ancestors’ way to preserve nature. We have to protect our cultural diversity as it also safeguards Raja Ampat biodiversity,” said George Mentasan, a Papuan anthropologist who spoke at the gathering.

Panh O Kayapo, an Indigenous Kayapo woman from the Amazon, said that Indigenous women hold a significant role in protecting biodiversity. She went on to say that Indigenous communities must not give in to the colonial extractivist forces exploiting their territories. She said, “We are the Indigenous women who protect not only our children, but also our biome. I speak up about women’s role not only for our generation, but also for generations to come, for them to have a better future.”

After three days of exchanging stories, knowledge, and struggles, the gathering resulted in the Arborek Declaration. The document calls on governments to recognise that Indigenous’ knowledge and way of life are the solutions for halting biodiversity loss and the climate crisis. It also reflects the Indigenous communities’ commitment to strengthen global solidarity in their fight defending their territories.

The Arborek Declaration also carries out important calls as governments prepare to review progress on the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework at CBD COP17. Greenpeace is calling for Indigenous and traditional territories to be fully recognised as a key part of achieving the global goal to protect at least 30% of land and oceans by 2030.

Protecting nature must not come at the expense of the people who have cared for these territories for generations. Governments must ensure that conservation respects the rights of Indigenous Peoples and local communities, including their right to decide how their territories are protected and managed through Free, Prior and Informed Consent (FPIC).

Syahrul Fitra, Greenpeace’s Co-lead of Global Forest Solutions project said, “Indigenous and Traditional Territories must be recognised on their own terms, rather than communities being forced into conservation models that do not reflect their rights, governance systems, or choices. Governments must also ensure direct access to biodiversity finance, so Indigenous Peoples and local communities have the resources to strengthen their own systems of protection and governance.”

Budiarti Putri is a Communications Campaigner for Greenpeace Indonesia

Notes:
Photos are available in the Greenpeace Media Library

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